Dec 26, 2015

Station Trends Based on the RRWT Average Correlation Wavelength

I added a new test specimen. I want to compare the group velocity wavelength method versus the average wavelength method. In order to do so I needed data and decided to implement the average wavelength method into a Station Trend output like I currently have for the group velocity method. The forecast data for the average wavelength method can be found here. I will be conducting verification on both methods. On a side note, the average wavelength method acts as a numerical genesis for the Lezak Recurring Cycle and the Doug Heady Pattern cycle length. This means anyone can forecast like Gary or Doug as the LRC/HP cycle length is automatically generated on a daily basis, all year round. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Dec 11, 2015

The Evolution of the Daily Trend - Suggested Weather Pattern to Begin 2016

In early September I Tweeted the January 2016 Daily Trends for Wausau, Milwaukee, Madison, and Oshkosh.


The Daily Trends showed a time period of below average temperatures for all locations to begin the new year. Since that day, the CONUS weather pattern correlation envelope has evolved daily. This group velocity is monitored in standing wave notation, so I would expect that the Daily Trends wouldn't change all that much.

Daily Trend Ensemble Frequency


With the Bering Sea Rule showing a storm to impact the ECONUS, I felt it time worthy to look at what the Daily Trends currently have in store for the new year.


The Daily Trends model run of 12/10 shows a similar pattern response but the temperature amplitude from average is less dramatic. The overall idea now is that temps will remain at or above average, instead of 5 to 7 degrees below average. We shall see!



In regard to the storm, below are possible Recurring Rossby Wave Train systems, based on current individual correlation waves of ~70 and ~50 days.

~70


~50


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Dec 7, 2015

WARNING: #Christmas #Weather


Click the forum link in the Tweet above. It will provide a 15 second read of what I was thinking with the posted images. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.