Nov 25, 2015

Current State of the PNA Frequency

Frequency Heat Map (Daily Top 10)






If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 22, 2015

The East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule) Verifies the Bering Sea Rule Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Pattern

A date in time. Let's choose December 2nd. (Observed Map)

East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule)


Verifies the Bering Sea Rule (BSR)


Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)


Individual RRWT maps
20150803


20150912


20151017


The individual RRWT patterns are based on the 15 day mode frequency, 12/2 ~45 is 10/17 ~36 is 09/12 ~41 is 08/03.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

The Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern Length

I enjoy keeping tabs on my early reasons for the need to create the automated "cycle" discovery tool. A couple years ago these two egos brought me to a climax that has yet to wane. Agreed, they see the patterns differently, they are human. Every artist has their own touch. They compare long range GFS maps to locate their agenda. After all, scientific data is not art, it's just mindless dribble that provides disregard. The latest from both are below. Be sure to check out their entire blog entries by clicking the links next to their name.

Doug Heady (The Heady Pattern)


Gary Lezak (The Lezak Recurring Cycle)


The OSNW3|WxClimate data suggest Doug Heady has the right idea. It also suggests that Gary Lezak has the right idea. Gary just doesn't know which frequency to latch onto. In my opinion, latching onto any one frequency for any extended period of time is audacious and lacks fortitude. Either way, the OSNW3|WxClimate frequencies since 8/1/15 are shown below.

Top 10 CONUS Frequency


The image above shows the top 10 correlations from anywhere in the CONUS. I can see a connection to the Heady Pattern cycle length. The image below shows the top 10 correlations regionally. I can see the recent daily base state is centralized in the CONUS and that the recent frequency dominance is a little bit shorter than what Doug Heady sees in the maps for his cycle length.

Top 10 Regional CONUS Frequency


To appease the style of the Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern I average the 30-90 day connections to visualize their cycle lengths. Currently it doesn't match the Heady Pattern. But, as Doug Heady states in his blog, he will be using his 52-53 day cycle length to project weather conditions weeks and months into the future.

The Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern Cycle Length



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 14, 2015

Governing Rules of the Weather2020 Lezak Recurring Cycle

A quick look at the governing rules of the Lezak Recurring Cycle.



Rule number one from the image above. This hypothesis does not formulate with the use of actual data. When analyzing H5 patterns in correlation a "unique weather pattern" never sets up at all. A loss of pattern correlation never takes place. See this image for a 2015 case study. The corresponding blog entry is here. What is changing is the frequency and amplitude of correlation. Another 2015 case study is located here.

Rule number two from the image above. Schedule? Not one schedule as the LRC hypothesis suggests. The correlation wave does not hold at one frequency. It is transient. It is an envelope of correlation waves. Finding the LRC length is less challenging than suggested. One can find the LRC length using simplistic methods such as Average, Mean, and Mode of the correlation group velocity wave. See this blog entry for a 2015 case study. A daily account of this is located here. The correlation coefficient of this average frequency is low. A 2014-15 case study is located here.

Rule number three from the image above. While this isn't a rule to the hypothesis, it is the highest of priority when marketing the LRC. I have yet to see verification data to support this claim. I continue to give Weather2020 and the LRC free marketing and publicity while proving that the LRC doesn't exist in the framework that is hypothesized. Exposure to science is my goal.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 13, 2015

OSNW3|WxClimate Knowledge Base: 2015-16 Current Performance and Members Used in the Model Ensemble

The OSNW3|WxClimate daily forecast Trends began forecasting and accumulating verification data on October 1, 2015. I often look at them to analyze how the forecasts are performing. On November 13, 2015 I selected the MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI.

October 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


November 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


A quick glance shows that some individual Members out performed the Ensemble, the Mean of all Members. I expect this to happen. Also, the early November miss could be blamed on the removal of the "Full Blend" analog for the 2015-16 testing. I would have to perform a deeper analysis to prove this however. It could just be a miss, and that is OK.

Daily Frequency Used To Project Weather Conditions


The Members are listed below.

M1 = 'Regional+' 15 Day Correlation Mode
M2 = Climate 'Region 6' Top Correlation
M3 = 'CONUS' Top Correlation

Consider this an attempt at Group Velocity. The 'Regional+' bucket is top R of individual stations. My reasoning to use this parameter is to capture the high frequency carrier wave based on standing wave notation, as I ignore all frequencies lower than 30. The 'Region 6' bucket is top R of all stations in the particular climate region. The 'CONUS' bucket is top R of all contiguous US stations. My reasoning to use these parameters is to capture the low frequency amplitude modulation. Molded into an envelope I attempt to project long-term weather conditions based on the amplitude of pattern correlation.

As always this is a work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 11, 2015

Seasonal Variation of a Signature Rossby Wave Train


Above is a Tweet designating dates of previously high correlated patterns for the storm occurring in the middle of the CONUS on 11/11/15.
(US Radar Loop). The image below depicts the correlation frequencies of the recurring RWT and focuses on the significant disturbance. Click on the image for a larger view. (bigger yet)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 10, 2015

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)

The Framework: Utilize NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns. The Goal: Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends. The Test: Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

As of November 10, 2015 two dominant frequencies of correlation are identifiable. A low 30 and mid 40 day wavelength. Simply put, my model projects based on the weather pattern correlation standing wave behavior. Forecasts and analyses of this behavior can be found here. If more indepth information is desired I often Tweet and post on the AccuWx Forums.

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!