Oct 31, 2015

An Omega Block Signal for Mid November?

Phasing of pattern correlation wave. R = 0.69 ~45 days. BSR prog for 11/15 and RRWT 45 days ago (10/1). Omega signature?

Frequency


BSR connection


RRWT pattern connection


Don't tell the Lezak Recurring Cycle folk that this pattern recurred from a prior pattern in late and early August when R > 0.6 ~38 and ~56 days. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 24, 2015

Correlation Wave Timing, Amplitude, and a Chance at First Measurable Snow

Phasing RRWT correlation wave is noticeable in the MaxT plot for Oshkosh, WI. Missing a bit on timing & amplitude. The trend is there though, which I can be happy with. Onto deconstruction of the individual waves and seek cause/effect.



Base state RRWT frequency suggests mid-Nov chances of accumulating snow in Oshkosh, WI. On time with OSNW3 climatology.




If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!c

Oct 22, 2015

The OSNW3|WxClimate Correlation Wave Fundamental Frequency, Harmony, and Phase Change

For a while now I have been connecting the weather pattern recurrence correlation to a standing wave formation. In the heatmaps and charts below I can see fundamental frequency, harmony, and phase change.

Regional Frequency Analysis Heatmap


OSNW3|WxClimate Model Parameter Frequency Heatmap


Region 2 Average and Accumulated Frequency Charts




The transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths is also evident when using them to project the weather pattern as shown by a recent timeline of forecast output.







If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 16, 2015

Lezak's Recurring Cycle; Annually Unique and Fascinating!


(No Twitter? image1, image2)

My thoughts on this subject are not the same as Gary Lezak's. Pattern correlation data suggests the energy displacement has already taken place. The chart below depicts the lower correlation results in blue, highlighted with a green rectangle.



This displacement happened during the Summer months and was finally assimilated in September. In three to four weeks, when Gary Lezak believes all previous pattern correlation should completely diminish, the pattern correlation data will be picking up on a more robust connective signal. What happened last year during this critical and fascinating time frame?



Data suggests by mid November 2014 the pattern correlation was red hot. How can this be? If it were a new and unique pattern there would be zero correlation until the second go around, which would not surface until January. I am sensing there isn't a new and unique pattern setting up as Lezak's Recurring Cycle suggests. So then, I ask myself, why wait for the LRC or the Heady Pattern?

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 13, 2015

A Quick Ramble. An Example of Pattern Correlation.

What do I mean when I mention pattern correlation? The chart below shows the H5 for Oakland, CA and the linear connection of two cycles. Top frequencies in the region have hovered in the mid 50s for nearly a month. Oct-12 top frequency for Oakland, CA was 54 days, the correlation result was 0.63.



The H5 values are not supposed to match, but instead parallel each other. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 12, 2015

A Quick Ramble. Why Wait for the LRC or the Heady Pattern?

The weather patterns are continually recurring. When the seasons change the pattern correlation loses continuity. Such as the "beginning of a new pattern", like Lezak and Heady declare each Autumn. This declaration might be attributed to events such as the Indian Summer Monsoon and it's ability to displace energy. As the jet meanders from the pole to the equator and vise versa the recurring pattern traverses different terrain. This friction gives each recurring pattern it's own characteristics. This takes place intraseasonally, but is more apparent seasonally.

Gary and Doug both suggest that the weather patterns are still evolving.

My take is a bit different. Currently I see two waves of weather pattern correlation. One suggests a frequency in the low-mid 50s and another a frequency in the mid-upper 30s. These two waves phase together to show the simple harmonics of the standing wavelengths of correlation. Reference the current system moving into Wisconsin.

GFS 500mb 6


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Frequency


~34 Days Ago


~54 Days Ago


Autumn does not foretell a brand new, completely unique pattern. I put together a similar comparison the other day. It is located here. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 9, 2015

A Modeled H5 Sub 520 in the Bering Sea at Forecast Hour 144

I am anxious to see what the RRWT model comes up with. The time frame will be coming into focus with the 21-25 day very soon.

ECMWF 500mb 144


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Frequency


~37 Days Ago


~54 Days Ago


Either way, this BSR moment caught my eye. Did a touch of quick research and this is what I came up with. Sniff it out, deets come later.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 7, 2015

Anticipated Correlations

As anticipated this time of year, we are beginning to capture stronger correlations.


Image source.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!