Mar 27, 2015

I Have Devised a Simple Way to Track Gary Lezak's Recurring Cycle Duration

Do you follow Gary Lezak and the Weather2020 recurring cycle? I have devised a simple way to track this cycle duration. The chart below shows the LRC duration based on the OSNW3|WxClimate 30-90 day ISO/RWT average frequency. Click for a larger view. These images update daily.





If you are interested in a bit of background, it began here. I followed along diligently until January 2014. A new thought process branched into this. Since that time I have been experimenting and testing ways of visualizing the framework. Data for peer review and testing currently takes place here.

Gary often discusses his cycle duration in his blogs. Check them out and compare my chart. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Mar 19, 2015

Conformity in the Application?

I like to see this kind of consistency. Bold text is initialization date. Italic text is forecast date range.

us-t2125-20150309-20150330-20150403


us-t1620-20150314-20150330-20150403


us-t1115-20150319-20150330-20150403


Even if it doesn't verify. It suggests that the code and selected formula is somewhat correct? Lol, not sure. Baby steps. Filename "us-t2125-20150309-20150330-20150403.png" breakdown is here. Source of archived maps is here. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

i-dropped-high-amplitude-and-high.html
a-transient-cycle-length-with-multiple.html
new-product-esrl-style-maps.html
a-random-ersl-map-verification-analysis.html

Mar 15, 2015

A Random ERSL Map Verification Analysis

I am not sure how I will conduct auto verification for these ESRL map type projections. A random case below.

-Surface Temperature Anomaly
-Observed 20150308-20150312


-Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
-Initialized 20150215, 21-25 Day Forecast 20150308-20150312


This might look OK, but it is just one instance. I am archiving all of the past projections here. On a side note, I am currently working on auto verification for the Trends. It's a long way off yet, but it is in the works. All of this is an ongoing work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!