I did a quick verification on my forecast maps that use the ESRL mapping. I picked a random projection range. 6/29-7/3. See the observed surface temp in attached image. Projection images listed below. (more here).
Seems my short-term forecasts 6-15 days were off a bit in this instance. The 16-25 days did OK. If you need help decoding the file name list above, see this link.
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading! #workinprogress