Apr 29, 2015

The Recurring Pacific/North American Teleconnection

Justin Poublon had a recurring wave question for me. I will attempt to continue the convo in this blog post. Justin has been working with analogs/trend/pattern tendencies lately. He noticed the PNA had a consistent trend (errors considered).

"So by extrapolating that pattern out and focusing on the negative times, I've picked out a few dates in the future that coincide with prominent storms in the past. Because ultimately it is the waves working across the west coast that produce PNA trends. I was wondering if you would agree that the May 8-14 and June 4-10 time frames would bring those prominent systems back? And also wondering if the recurrence of the 4/9 storm would take place in early June? I'm also curious if the 4/9 storm had any connection to the southern Wisconsin snowstorm in Jan/Feb. Thanks!" - JP (Check out his stuff at WisconsinWX.com)

I suppose to give him an answer my first step is to calculate the PNA recurring frequency. See the collection of charts below. A heat-map for the daily top-10 recurring PNA frequency can be found here as well.

Now I get to play fortune teller. By looking at the observed PNA from the past four months, I would have to say, yes, we could see a PNA dip in the time frames JP suggested. Perhaps push the June dates out a week? As for the 4/9/15 storm, yes, early June is ~60 days from 4/9/15, based on two cycles of the PNA. And does the 4/9/15 storm connect to the winter storm on 2/1/15? Instead of the PNA frequency I will use the h5 frequency. On 4/9/15 the top frequency was 36 with a 63 sprinkled in (harmonic) and was mostly central based. That brings us to 3/4/15 and with harmony that brings us back to early Feb. So, yes, it is connected. Lol. #woostorms! :)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!