Apr 29, 2015

The Recurring Pacific/North American Teleconnection

Justin Poublon had a recurring wave question for me. I will attempt to continue the convo in this blog post. Justin has been working with analogs/trend/pattern tendencies lately. He noticed the PNA had a consistent trend (errors considered).

"So by extrapolating that pattern out and focusing on the negative times, I've picked out a few dates in the future that coincide with prominent storms in the past. Because ultimately it is the waves working across the west coast that produce PNA trends. I was wondering if you would agree that the May 8-14 and June 4-10 time frames would bring those prominent systems back? And also wondering if the recurrence of the 4/9 storm would take place in early June? I'm also curious if the 4/9 storm had any connection to the southern Wisconsin snowstorm in Jan/Feb. Thanks!" - JP (Check out his stuff at WisconsinWX.com)

I suppose to give him an answer my first step is to calculate the PNA recurring frequency. See the collection of charts below. A heat-map for the daily top-10 recurring PNA frequency can be found here as well.

Now I get to play fortune teller. By looking at the observed PNA from the past four months, I would have to say, yes, we could see a PNA dip in the time frames JP suggested. Perhaps push the June dates out a week? As for the 4/9/15 storm, yes, early June is ~60 days from 4/9/15, based on two cycles of the PNA. And does the 4/9/15 storm connect to the winter storm on 2/1/15? Instead of the PNA frequency I will use the h5 frequency. On 4/9/15 the top frequency was 36 with a 63 sprinkled in (harmonic) and was mostly central based. That brings us to 3/4/15 and with harmony that brings us back to early Feb. So, yes, it is connected. Lol. #woostorms! :)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Apr 17, 2015

High Correlation in the Mid 30 Day Frequency

I am currently recording near 0.8 correlation in the mid 30 day frequency in Region 7. I plotted the 500s for two stations (KILX and KILN) in what I label Region 7 to show the pattern consistency. Region 7 consists of stations in the Ohio Valley (Central). This region has all stations reporting within the daily top 10 frequencies.

I would suspect that if someone analyzed CONUS 500 maps during this time frame there would be regions that do not match up within this frequency. Analysis suggests that a transient cycle frequency with multiple phasing cycles is taking place. Something similar to a standing wave. Not an all encompassing macro cycle that Lezak suggests. See the heat-map table for more.

Lezak tweeted me that his cycle range has been 43-50 days since 10/1. The chart below shows this range correlating well near the end of November and early December. The wheelhouse time when Lezak discovers his cycle length each year, then back dates it to when it "began" in October. The past few months his range of days hasn't been performing well.

Calculating the median and average of the top-10 daily frequencies yield results very close to what Lezak states as his cycle length range. Most recently the range has been 42-49 days. The chart below shows the range of the median and average since 8/1/14.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!