Feb 13, 2015

I dropped the high amplitude and high frequency states and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively

I dropped the high amplitude and frequency states (ISO short-term component, 10-20 days) from the CONUS output and plotted the 30-90 day correlations exclusively.



What is this junk? Back when I followed Lezak's Recurring Cycle and/or the Heady Pattern, comparing 500mb maps with the naked eye was the only way to find/follow the cycle. I quickly learned everyone has a different eye. Instead of looking for blessings from the cyclic masters I decided to seek the cyclic nature in data. Much like how they (LRC/HP) compare maps I decided to compare legitimate peer reviewed oscillations in a similar manner. Rather than look for a recurring cycle at ~50 days every couple days (or what is perceived as the cycle length) in maps, I formulate correlation of a 10 to 90 day range from sounding data on a daily basis. I find the dominant recurring patterns and plot the output.

A correlation example. Say I am finding the correlation for the date 9/1, for day 20 in the 10-90 day range. The data arrays that are used to find the correlation consist of data within the dates 9/1 thru 8/12 and 8/11 thru 7/22. I find the correlation for day 10 through day 90 and plot the highest correlations. This is what is plotted in the tables of the image above. The left table is the region* the top correlations in the middle table originated from, the middle table is the top 10 oscillation frequencies (aka "cycle" length) and the right table is the corresponding correlation value of the middle table. At the very bottom of the table is mode, mean, and average statistics as well.

*I categorize the CONUS RAOB stations in regions of climate. I simply label them region 1 through 9, see image below.


Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Forecasting skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.

This is just quick summary that stemmed from this twitter thread. I will likely add to the entry in the future. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!