Dec 26, 2015

Station Trends Based on the RRWT Average Correlation Wavelength

I added a new test specimen. I want to compare the group velocity wavelength method versus the average wavelength method. In order to do so I needed data and decided to implement the average wavelength method into a Station Trend output like I currently have for the group velocity method. The forecast data for the average wavelength method can be found here. I will be conducting verification on both methods. On a side note, the average wavelength method acts as a numerical genesis for the Lezak Recurring Cycle and the Doug Heady Pattern cycle length. This means anyone can forecast like Gary or Doug as the LRC/HP cycle length is automatically generated on a daily basis, all year round. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Dec 11, 2015

The Evolution of the Daily Trend - Suggested Weather Pattern to Begin 2016

In early September I Tweeted the January 2016 Daily Trends for Wausau, Milwaukee, Madison, and Oshkosh.


The Daily Trends showed a time period of below average temperatures for all locations to begin the new year. Since that day, the CONUS weather pattern correlation envelope has evolved daily. This group velocity is monitored in standing wave notation, so I would expect that the Daily Trends wouldn't change all that much.

Daily Trend Ensemble Frequency


With the Bering Sea Rule showing a storm to impact the ECONUS, I felt it time worthy to look at what the Daily Trends currently have in store for the new year.


The Daily Trends model run of 12/10 shows a similar pattern response but the temperature amplitude from average is less dramatic. The overall idea now is that temps will remain at or above average, instead of 5 to 7 degrees below average. We shall see!



In regard to the storm, below are possible Recurring Rossby Wave Train systems, based on current individual correlation waves of ~70 and ~50 days.

~70


~50


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Dec 7, 2015

WARNING: #Christmas #Weather


Click the forum link in the Tweet above. It will provide a 15 second read of what I was thinking with the posted images. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Nov 25, 2015

Current State of the PNA Frequency

Frequency Heat Map (Daily Top 10)






If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 22, 2015

The East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule) Verifies the Bering Sea Rule Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Pattern

A date in time. Let's choose December 2nd. (Observed Map)

East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule)


Verifies the Bering Sea Rule (BSR)


Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)


Individual RRWT maps
20150803


20150912


20151017


The individual RRWT patterns are based on the 15 day mode frequency, 12/2 ~45 is 10/17 ~36 is 09/12 ~41 is 08/03.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 13, 2015

OSNW3|WxClimate Knowledge Base: 2015-16 Current Performance and Members Used in the Model Ensemble

The OSNW3|WxClimate daily forecast Trends began forecasting and accumulating verification data on October 1, 2015. I often look at them to analyze how the forecasts are performing. On November 13, 2015 I selected the MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI.

October 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


November 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


A quick glance shows that some individual Members out performed the Ensemble, the Mean of all Members. I expect this to happen. Also, the early November miss could be blamed on the removal of the "Full Blend" analog for the 2015-16 testing. I would have to perform a deeper analysis to prove this however. It could just be a miss, and that is OK.

Daily Frequency Used To Project Weather Conditions


The Members are listed below.

M1 = 'Regional+' 15 Day Correlation Mode
M2 = Climate 'Region 6' Top Correlation
M3 = 'CONUS' Top Correlation

Consider this an attempt at Group Velocity. The 'Regional+' bucket is top R of individual stations. My reasoning to use this parameter is to capture the high frequency carrier wave based on standing wave notation, as I ignore all frequencies lower than 30. The 'Region 6' bucket is top R of all stations in the particular climate region. The 'CONUS' bucket is top R of all contiguous US stations. My reasoning to use these parameters is to capture the low frequency amplitude modulation. Molded into an envelope I attempt to project long-term weather conditions based on the amplitude of pattern correlation.

As always this is a work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 11, 2015

Seasonal Variation of a Signature Rossby Wave Train


Above is a Tweet designating dates of previously high correlated patterns for the storm occurring in the middle of the CONUS on 11/11/15.
(US Radar Loop). The image below depicts the correlation frequencies of the recurring RWT and focuses on the significant disturbance. Click on the image for a larger view. (bigger yet)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 10, 2015

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)

The Framework: Utilize NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns. The Goal: Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends. The Test: Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

As of November 10, 2015 two dominant frequencies of correlation are identifiable. A low 30 and mid 40 day wavelength. Simply put, my model projects based on the weather pattern correlation standing wave behavior. Forecasts and analyses of this behavior can be found here. If more indepth information is desired I often Tweet and post on the AccuWx Forums.

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!




Oct 31, 2015

An Omega Block Signal for Mid November?

Phasing of pattern correlation wave. R = 0.69 ~45 days. BSR prog for 11/15 and RRWT 45 days ago (10/1). Omega signature?

Frequency


BSR connection


RRWT pattern connection


Don't tell the Lezak Recurring Cycle folk that this pattern recurred from a prior pattern in late and early August when R > 0.6 ~38 and ~56 days. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 24, 2015

Correlation Wave Timing, Amplitude, and a Chance at First Measurable Snow

Phasing RRWT correlation wave is noticeable in the MaxT plot for Oshkosh, WI. Missing a bit on timing & amplitude. The trend is there though, which I can be happy with. Onto deconstruction of the individual waves and seek cause/effect.



Base state RRWT frequency suggests mid-Nov chances of accumulating snow in Oshkosh, WI. On time with OSNW3 climatology.




If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!c

Oct 22, 2015

The OSNW3|WxClimate Correlation Wave Fundamental Frequency, Harmony, and Phase Change

For a while now I have been connecting the weather pattern recurrence correlation to a standing wave formation. In the heatmaps and charts below I can see fundamental frequency, harmony, and phase change.

Regional Frequency Analysis Heatmap


OSNW3|WxClimate Model Parameter Frequency Heatmap


Region 2 Average and Accumulated Frequency Charts




The transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths is also evident when using them to project the weather pattern as shown by a recent timeline of forecast output.







If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 13, 2015

A Quick Ramble. An Example of Pattern Correlation.

What do I mean when I mention pattern correlation? The chart below shows the H5 for Oakland, CA and the linear connection of two cycles. Top frequencies in the region have hovered in the mid 50s for nearly a month. Oct-12 top frequency for Oakland, CA was 54 days, the correlation result was 0.63.



The H5 values are not supposed to match, but instead parallel each other. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 9, 2015

A Modeled H5 Sub 520 in the Bering Sea at Forecast Hour 144

I am anxious to see what the RRWT model comes up with. The time frame will be coming into focus with the 21-25 day very soon.

ECMWF 500mb 144


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Frequency


~37 Days Ago


~54 Days Ago


Either way, this BSR moment caught my eye. Did a touch of quick research and this is what I came up with. Sniff it out, deets come later.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 7, 2015

Anticipated Correlations

As anticipated this time of year, we are beginning to capture stronger correlations.


Image source.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Sep 9, 2015

BSR Showing Volatility to End September

Some volatility the last week of the month per the Bering Sea Rule.


The RRWT run from 9/9/15 for the 16-20 and 21-25 day.


We shall see! If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Sep 7, 2015

Testing of the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Continues

The 2015-16 website is located here. I've scaled down the amount of station trends I provide on the website. I sort of upped the ante with forecasts utilizing ESRL mapping techniques. I have partnered with some others to use their frequency and run it through my framework and push the results back to them. I am providing plenty of pattern correlation analysis as well. It's still fun I guess. If there are any questions or concerns about any of the material please leave a comment or email me.

I have provided links to the evolution of this farcical process. Each year it evolves, and I am looking forward to what I learn this year.

2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11

Aug 4, 2015

The Fickle Nature

The other day I made a comparison using the RRWT and BSR to showcase a potential NW flow into the ECONUS during the second half of August.



Since then, due to the volatility of recent plots, I decided to publish the frequencies that are used to generate the maps for perhaps a more thorough analysis. Below is a snap shot in time.

RRWT


And as we see per the BSR, moving into the third week of August the NW flow is not there.

BSR


I think the RRWT frequency on 7/30 was an anomaly of sorts, showcasing harmonics. We shall see. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Aug 3, 2015

Using the PNA Frequency to Project CONUS Temperature

A while back I decided to begin finding the frequency of the PNA and AO as I had been for the 500mb in the CONUS. Now I need to verify the PNA/AO frequency can be used to capture past weather conditions in order to project future weather conditions. I will attempt such in this post, using the PNA.

I correlate the frequency (recurring patterns) of the PNA. Recently the high frequency has been ~37 days and the low frequency has been ~70 days. See image below.



The frequency is transient and pulses slowly back and forth (animation) Starting from a point in time; Aug-1. I want to verify the high frequency of this past cycle, 6/25-8/1, to two cycles ago 5/23-6/25. Knowing the average high frequency we can project forward. 5/23-6/25 should resemble what was to come 6/25-8/1.

5/23-6/25


6/25-8/1


With this comparison it seems the trough axis shifted a bit west, but overall it's not a bust. I want to verify the low frequency also. The low frequency as of this writing is ~70 days. The frequency is transient, and after analyzing the frequencies of a cycle previous, 3/14-5/23, I feel the need to shorten the range by ~5 days going back another cycle.

3/19-5/23


5/23-8/1


The low frequency PNA from 3/19-5/23 did OK projecting the time frame of the next low frequency cycle 5/23-8/1. Certainly not a bust.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Jul 11, 2015

Fundamental Frequency

A changing of the guard? Notice the temporal elongation of frequency, ~30 transitions to ~35 and ~60 transitions to ~70. A phasing of the wave is taking place with a moderate ~40 now showing up.



This paints an anomalously warm ECONUS the next few weeks, with a late July, early Aug reprieve.



My calcs are showing an upper 40s for a Lezak/Heady style cycle length. A forecast value going above 50 as we head through September. I wonder what these guys will come up with through Summer and into Fall. Both of their blogs are listed in the Blog Roll on the right.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on images for larger views. Thanks for reading!