Dec 26, 2015

Station Trends Based on the RRWT Average Correlation Wavelength

I added a new test specimen. I want to compare the group velocity wavelength method versus the average wavelength method. In order to do so I needed data and decided to implement the average wavelength method into a Station Trend output like I currently have for the group velocity method. The forecast data for the average wavelength method can be found here. I will be conducting verification on both methods. On a side note, the average wavelength method acts as a numerical genesis for the Lezak Recurring Cycle and the Doug Heady Pattern cycle length. This means anyone can forecast like Gary or Doug as the LRC/HP cycle length is automatically generated on a daily basis, all year round. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Dec 11, 2015

The Evolution of the Daily Trend - Suggested Weather Pattern to Begin 2016

In early September I Tweeted the January 2016 Daily Trends for Wausau, Milwaukee, Madison, and Oshkosh.


The Daily Trends showed a time period of below average temperatures for all locations to begin the new year. Since that day, the CONUS weather pattern correlation envelope has evolved daily. This group velocity is monitored in standing wave notation, so I would expect that the Daily Trends wouldn't change all that much.

Daily Trend Ensemble Frequency


With the Bering Sea Rule showing a storm to impact the ECONUS, I felt it time worthy to look at what the Daily Trends currently have in store for the new year.


The Daily Trends model run of 12/10 shows a similar pattern response but the temperature amplitude from average is less dramatic. The overall idea now is that temps will remain at or above average, instead of 5 to 7 degrees below average. We shall see!



In regard to the storm, below are possible Recurring Rossby Wave Train systems, based on current individual correlation waves of ~70 and ~50 days.

~70


~50


If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Dec 7, 2015

WARNING: #Christmas #Weather


Click the forum link in the Tweet above. It will provide a 15 second read of what I was thinking with the posted images. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Nov 25, 2015

Current State of the PNA Frequency

Frequency Heat Map (Daily Top 10)






If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 22, 2015

The East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule) Verifies the Bering Sea Rule Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train Pattern

A date in time. Let's choose December 2nd. (Observed Map)

East Asia Rule (aka Typhoon Rule)


Verifies the Bering Sea Rule (BSR)


Verifies the Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)


Individual RRWT maps
20150803


20150912


20151017


The individual RRWT patterns are based on the 15 day mode frequency, 12/2 ~45 is 10/17 ~36 is 09/12 ~41 is 08/03.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

The Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern Length

I enjoy keeping tabs on my early reasons for the need to create the automated "cycle" discovery tool. A couple years ago these two egos brought me to a climax that has yet to wane. Agreed, they see the patterns differently, they are human. Every artist has their own touch. They compare long range GFS maps to locate their agenda. After all, scientific data is not art, it's just mindless dribble that provides disregard. The latest from both are below. Be sure to check out their entire blog entries by clicking the links next to their name.

Doug Heady (The Heady Pattern)


Gary Lezak (The Lezak Recurring Cycle)


The OSNW3|WxClimate data suggest Doug Heady has the right idea. It also suggests that Gary Lezak has the right idea. Gary just doesn't know which frequency to latch onto. In my opinion, latching onto any one frequency for any extended period of time is audacious and lacks fortitude. Either way, the OSNW3|WxClimate frequencies since 8/1/15 are shown below.

Top 10 CONUS Frequency


The image above shows the top 10 correlations from anywhere in the CONUS. I can see a connection to the Heady Pattern cycle length. The image below shows the top 10 correlations regionally. I can see the recent daily base state is centralized in the CONUS and that the recent frequency dominance is a little bit shorter than what Doug Heady sees in the maps for his cycle length.

Top 10 Regional CONUS Frequency


To appease the style of the Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern I average the 30-90 day connections to visualize their cycle lengths. Currently it doesn't match the Heady Pattern. But, as Doug Heady states in his blog, he will be using his 52-53 day cycle length to project weather conditions weeks and months into the future.

The Lezak Recurring Cycle and Heady Pattern Cycle Length



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 14, 2015

Governing Rules of the Weather2020 Lezak Recurring Cycle

A quick look at the governing rules of the Lezak Recurring Cycle.



Rule number one from the image above. This hypothesis does not formulate with the use of actual data. When analyzing H5 patterns in correlation a "unique weather pattern" never sets up at all. A loss of pattern correlation never takes place. See this image for a 2015 case study. The corresponding blog entry is here. What is changing is the frequency and amplitude of correlation. Another 2015 case study is located here.

Rule number two from the image above. Schedule? Not one schedule as the LRC hypothesis suggests. The correlation wave does not hold at one frequency. It is transient. It is an envelope of correlation waves. Finding the LRC length is less challenging than suggested. One can find the LRC length using simplistic methods such as Average, Mean, and Mode of the correlation group velocity wave. See this blog entry for a 2015 case study. A daily account of this is located here. The correlation coefficient of this average frequency is low. A 2014-15 case study is located here.

Rule number three from the image above. While this isn't a rule to the hypothesis, it is the highest of priority when marketing the LRC. I have yet to see verification data to support this claim. I continue to give Weather2020 and the LRC free marketing and publicity while proving that the LRC doesn't exist in the framework that is hypothesized. Exposure to science is my goal.

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 13, 2015

OSNW3|WxClimate Knowledge Base: 2015-16 Current Performance and Members Used in the Model Ensemble

The OSNW3|WxClimate daily forecast Trends began forecasting and accumulating verification data on October 1, 2015. I often look at them to analyze how the forecasts are performing. On November 13, 2015 I selected the MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI.

October 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


November 2015 MaxT Trend for Green Bay, WI


A quick glance shows that some individual Members out performed the Ensemble, the Mean of all Members. I expect this to happen. Also, the early November miss could be blamed on the removal of the "Full Blend" analog for the 2015-16 testing. I would have to perform a deeper analysis to prove this however. It could just be a miss, and that is OK.

Daily Frequency Used To Project Weather Conditions


The Members are listed below.

M1 = 'Regional+' 15 Day Correlation Mode
M2 = Climate 'Region 6' Top Correlation
M3 = 'CONUS' Top Correlation

Consider this an attempt at Group Velocity. The 'Regional+' bucket is top R of individual stations. My reasoning to use this parameter is to capture the high frequency carrier wave based on standing wave notation, as I ignore all frequencies lower than 30. The 'Region 6' bucket is top R of all stations in the particular climate region. The 'CONUS' bucket is top R of all contiguous US stations. My reasoning to use these parameters is to capture the low frequency amplitude modulation. Molded into an envelope I attempt to project long-term weather conditions based on the amplitude of pattern correlation.

As always this is a work in progress. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 11, 2015

Seasonal Variation of a Signature Rossby Wave Train


Above is a Tweet designating dates of previously high correlated patterns for the storm occurring in the middle of the CONUS on 11/11/15.
(US Radar Loop). The image below depicts the correlation frequencies of the recurring RWT and focuses on the significant disturbance. Click on the image for a larger view. (bigger yet)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Nov 10, 2015

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)

The Framework: Utilize NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns in standing wave notation. Described specifically to harmonics, reflecting the temporal/transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths in correlation and relating Intraseasonal Oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns. The Goal: Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends. The Test: Recurring Rossby Wave Train.

As of November 10, 2015 two dominant frequencies of correlation are identifiable. A low 30 and mid 40 day wavelength. Simply put, my model projects based on the weather pattern correlation standing wave behavior. Forecasts and analyses of this behavior can be found here. If more indepth information is desired I often Tweet and post on the AccuWx Forums.

Western Great Lakes Region 2015-16 Winter Forecast Snapshot (DJFM)



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!




Oct 31, 2015

An Omega Block Signal for Mid November?

Phasing of pattern correlation wave. R = 0.69 ~45 days. BSR prog for 11/15 and RRWT 45 days ago (10/1). Omega signature?

Frequency


BSR connection


RRWT pattern connection


Don't tell the Lezak Recurring Cycle folk that this pattern recurred from a prior pattern in late and early August when R > 0.6 ~38 and ~56 days. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 24, 2015

Correlation Wave Timing, Amplitude, and a Chance at First Measurable Snow

Phasing RRWT correlation wave is noticeable in the MaxT plot for Oshkosh, WI. Missing a bit on timing & amplitude. The trend is there though, which I can be happy with. Onto deconstruction of the individual waves and seek cause/effect.



Base state RRWT frequency suggests mid-Nov chances of accumulating snow in Oshkosh, WI. On time with OSNW3 climatology.




If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!c

Oct 22, 2015

The OSNW3|WxClimate Correlation Wave Fundamental Frequency, Harmony, and Phase Change

For a while now I have been connecting the weather pattern recurrence correlation to a standing wave formation. In the heatmaps and charts below I can see fundamental frequency, harmony, and phase change.

Regional Frequency Analysis Heatmap


OSNW3|WxClimate Model Parameter Frequency Heatmap


Region 2 Average and Accumulated Frequency Charts




The transient behavior of the frequency wavelengths is also evident when using them to project the weather pattern as shown by a recent timeline of forecast output.







If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 16, 2015

Lezak's Recurring Cycle; Annually Unique and Fascinating!


(No Twitter? image1, image2)

My thoughts on this subject are not the same as Gary Lezak's. Pattern correlation data suggests the energy displacement has already taken place. The chart below depicts the lower correlation results in blue, highlighted with a green rectangle.



This displacement happened during the Summer months and was finally assimilated in September. In three to four weeks, when Gary Lezak believes all previous pattern correlation should completely diminish, the pattern correlation data will be picking up on a more robust connective signal. What happened last year during this critical and fascinating time frame?



Data suggests by mid November 2014 the pattern correlation was red hot. How can this be? If it were a new and unique pattern there would be zero correlation until the second go around, which would not surface until January. I am sensing there isn't a new and unique pattern setting up as Lezak's Recurring Cycle suggests. So then, I ask myself, why wait for the LRC or the Heady Pattern?

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 13, 2015

A Quick Ramble. An Example of Pattern Correlation.

What do I mean when I mention pattern correlation? The chart below shows the H5 for Oakland, CA and the linear connection of two cycles. Top frequencies in the region have hovered in the mid 50s for nearly a month. Oct-12 top frequency for Oakland, CA was 54 days, the correlation result was 0.63.



The H5 values are not supposed to match, but instead parallel each other. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 12, 2015

A Quick Ramble. Why Wait for the LRC or the Heady Pattern?

The weather patterns are continually recurring. When the seasons change the pattern correlation loses continuity. Such as the "beginning of a new pattern", like Lezak and Heady declare each Autumn. This declaration might be attributed to events such as the Indian Summer Monsoon and it's ability to displace energy. As the jet meanders from the pole to the equator and vise versa the recurring pattern traverses different terrain. This friction gives each recurring pattern it's own characteristics. This takes place intraseasonally, but is more apparent seasonally.

Gary and Doug both suggest that the weather patterns are still evolving.

My take is a bit different. Currently I see two waves of weather pattern correlation. One suggests a frequency in the low-mid 50s and another a frequency in the mid-upper 30s. These two waves phase together to show the simple harmonics of the standing wavelengths of correlation. Reference the current system moving into Wisconsin.

GFS 500mb 6


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Frequency


~34 Days Ago


~54 Days Ago


Autumn does not foretell a brand new, completely unique pattern. I put together a similar comparison the other day. It is located here. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!

Oct 9, 2015

A Modeled H5 Sub 520 in the Bering Sea at Forecast Hour 144

I am anxious to see what the RRWT model comes up with. The time frame will be coming into focus with the 21-25 day very soon.

ECMWF 500mb 144


Recurring Rossby Wave Train Frequency


~37 Days Ago


~54 Days Ago


Either way, this BSR moment caught my eye. Did a touch of quick research and this is what I came up with. Sniff it out, deets come later.



If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Click on the images for a larger view. Thanks for reading!