Oct 4, 2014

OSNW3 | WxClimate 2014-15 Ensemble

This blog post will act as a "help" page for the 2014-15 ensemble member descrptions.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.

Last year I integrated a three member ensemble seeking better resolution to the cycling weather pattern. The 2013-14 method was based on specific ideas of the LRC/Heady Pattern. Since that time I have discovered that the LRC/Heady Pattern are just names for a specific harmonic in the overall Rossby standing wave. Utilizing this new information I have revised the ensemble members for this year.

Member 1 (M1) scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).

Member 2 (M2) scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Member 3 (M3) does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process. The 2014-15 data is ready for testing/review and can be found here.

Often times this blog is neglected. Many of my ramblings can be found in the AccuWeather ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR threads. Please check it out, go here for the 2014-15 version. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!