Oct 28, 2014

Interpreting the BSRi

A visual of the Bering Sea Rule Index. More info can be found here.

Going deeper. In Joseph Renken's 24OCT14 LR Disco he states "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November" via the Typhoon Rule (based off a long range model I assume) AND then states "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based off a short range model I assume). Same or different energy? Anyway, the solutions presented below have begun to show up in the BSRi (image at bottom), and match what was discussed in JD's latest.

Plugging the ISO/RR. A ~34 day dominant harmonic gives us the solution below, connecting mid November dates bolded above.

KCOU could be looking at their first hard freeze of the season.

I think the BSRi shows this well (image below). A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame.

Original content posted on the ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR 2014-2015 AccuWx Forum. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Oct 8, 2014

Halloween 2014 - Based On BSR/ISO/RR Connection

Below is an image of the 12Z GFS 72HR solution for the Western Pacific.

Source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Observed: pac00.500fcst.12.2014101113.gif

Below is an image of the ~32 day dominant ISO/RR frequency in Region 6

Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/

Utilizing the Bering Sea Rule ~20 day connection to the CONUS, 10/11 becomes 10/31. Utilizing the Intraseasonal Oscillation and Recurring Rossby ~32 day connection mentioned above, 10/31 becomes 9/29. The image below can be used as a starting point for an analog weather pattern that may take place +/- several days centered on 10/31/14 in North America.

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

The red square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!

Oct 4, 2014

OSNW3 | WxClimate 2014-15 Ensemble

This blog post will act as a "help" page for the 2014-15 ensemble member descrptions.

Framework: Use current NOAA/ESRL Radiosonde Database to analyze large-scale upper atmosphere patterns and relate the tropical Intraseasonal oscillation to Mid-Latitude recurring weather patterns.

Goal: Long Range forecasting skill of surface weather trends.

Last year I integrated a three member ensemble seeking better resolution to the cycling weather pattern. The 2013-14 method was based on specific ideas of the LRC/Heady Pattern. Since that time I have discovered that the LRC/Heady Pattern are just names for a specific harmonic in the overall Rossby standing wave. Utilizing this new information I have revised the ensemble members for this year.

Member 1 (M1) scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO).

Member 2 (M2) scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Member 3 (M3) does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process. The 2014-15 data is ready for testing/review and can be found here.

Often times this blog is neglected. Many of my ramblings can be found in the AccuWeather ISO/Rossby/BSR/TR threads. Please check it out, go here for the 2014-15 version. If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading!