~18, 36, 54, 72
The primary and second harmonic were the most dominant as there wasn't regional consistency in positive correlation past 40 days (see above images). I chose the second harmonic. Give or take a couple days, 36 days away from mid March was early/mid February. I knew that back on Feb 20 (see tweet below) the atmospheric setup produced a severe weather event that had recurred on two separate occasions in the long-term cycle.
Primary harmonic ~18. Seeing good correlation in the 2nd harmonic. Could this be recurring at the end of March? #ISO pic.twitter.com/pEXlv49uyQ
— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) March 17, 2014
The SPC had nothing in their D4-8 forecasts on Mar 20 or Mar 22. They did in the D3 on Mar 25 though. Very good.
The above observation is over a week old and the dominant ISO components have evolved. Below is the Mar 26 run. More to come.
If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know. Thanks for reading! More to come.