This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area. The tropical system that we talked about last week was delayed from development by a couple of days, and as such…the result is a delay with the rest of the forecast. We still have a sizeable trough over East Asia showing up from the 9th-12th which translates to a trough over our area between the 15th and 22nd with a quick ridging to follow. Then, a more sizeable trough follows immediately which translates to the cooler period between the 20th and 26th. Zonal flow then sets up which means the warm up will be slow afterwards.
In the Bering Sea, a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th which continues to show a cool end to the month and into November before a quick ridge shows up mid-month of October. This will translate to ridging in the middle of the first week of November.
Translate JD's second paragraph - (from JD: "end to the month and into November") into LRC. I take the end of the period, November 2nd, subtract 43 days (potential 43 day cycle mention), I get September 20th.
(Sep 20, 2013)
To start (click the image if you want to play along), I go forward, I see ridging showing up 9/20-26 (from JD: "ridging in the middle of the first week of November"), and when I go backward I see a *parade of troughs 9/12-20 (from JD: "In the Bering Sea, a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th").
*Instead of mentioning just one system as JD does (from JD: "a sizeable system is showing up between the 8th and 14th") I'd like to mention, I see multiple systems of different strength. But I am using NOGAPS. :)
43 day cycle length or is this just a 3/4 harmonic of 57?
Bering Sea Rule With The Assist?
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC and BSR or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!