Jul 26, 2013

Current Pattern - Never a Doubt?

It's getting chilly out side. People are talking about it. Never a doubt, since November? I think so.

Larger images --> Maps & Calendar
Reminder: this is why map comparisons are a cancer...

Jul 20, 2013

Enhancing the Full Blend?

After three years of following ‪LRC‬ patterns, I have come into a lower confidence in a "full blend" when projecting surface temps - http://tiny.cc/osnw3wxclimate. To enhance the model's long range temp accuracy, I've been creating an ‪ISO‬ LRC ensemble. KOSH is my guinea pig. When using ISO LRC to project long range weather conditions it is necessary to "give or take a day or two". The atmosphere is fluid after all. The model provides daily verification. More warm temperatures in ‪‎Oshkosh‬ as August begins? (see image) Interactive charts - http://tiny.cc/koshens and a remainder of summer forecast based on LRC "full blend" - http://tiny.cc/wiwxjulaug

Jul 6, 2013

Predicting Future Weather Using Unproven Ideas and Other Voodoo

After further analysis I may have had a miscue in my day counting back in May. Never the less. It is summer in the CONUS. The jet is moving pole ward. Looks like there may be an event this time around, but as pointed out way back in January, it's a wimpy Low.

I will likely be posting the 7/7 map, along with storm reports from the forecast below.

originally posted May 18, 2013

BUST - I think that H in the four corners held the system from dropping down. A result of the jet stream shifting north? Slowly but surely. No matter, I'm confident that the pattern we are moving into spun several @weatherchannel named storms this winter (grey shade). Will watch this particular pattern (yellow shade) through it's entirety - in early July (5-6) when WI will surely be in the path. LOL.

"Cycle 5" May 13-14, 2013

originally posted Apr 28, 2013
Again the time is nearing. How is this pattern going to act this time around? The bet has evolved into an accompanied count of reports from just a warned area. This idea is absurd. Right? I assume I will be laughing at myself in two plus weeks. (For some reason I banked on the cycle coming in at 51 this time around. Seems it may be 52 or 53. My dates need to be extended by a day or two)

A projection - May 13-14, 2013

originally posted Mar 25, 2013

The time has passed, I lost the bet. Now we wait until May 13-14 for the next recurrence. How will it act?

"Cycle 4" March 23-24, 2013

originally posted Mar 12, 2013

Update: Archived radar loops of this storm from past cycles.

20121016-20 "Cycle 1"
20121208-12 "Cycle 2"
20130129-31 "Cycle 3"

originally posted Jan 28, 2013

We may have been a bit cryptic on the AccuWx Forum LRC Thread, so I will attempt to toss all the images into a quick blog entry. Click on each of the images for more information.

"Cycle 1" October 17-18, 2012

"Cycle 2" December 8-9, 2012

"Cycle 3" January 29-30, 2013

This is the pattern I have chosen to wager a "weather future" on. While the future may not be my retirement fund, it very well could be some of the best BBQ I have ever tasted. I am not a severe weather guy, nor have I ever chased, but if I were to pick dates on when I would, it would be March 25-26, 2013 ish. Using a 53 day cycle length I may be a day or two long on my dates. We'll see how it turns out. I've already read some trash talk of my choice; "you will need it to wrap up more next time. Wimpy surface low" - LOL. Be that as it may, I am wishcasting a winner! We will have a very good idea of what it looks like in the Pacific 2.5 - 3 weeks prior to the CONUS version. Stay tuned to the AccuWx Forum LRC Thread.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the theory or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Archived Forecast - July/August - WIWX

Having a little fun with the cats over at Wisconsin Weather. I tossed together a remainder of July and all of August forecast for the Facebook Group page.

Originally posted on the Wisconsin Weather Facebook page.

Utilizing intraseasonal oscillations and a cycling weather pattern called Lezak's Recurring Cycle the attempt to project weather conditions weeks and months into the future is happening. Currently the data used to generate the forecast are based on a full blend of cycles. The outlook for the remainder of July and all of August, based on the current interpretation of the cycle, is listed below. (http://tiny.cc/isowiwx)

As the jet stream moves pole ward during the summer months a lot of the weather experienced the past 9 months in the Midwest shifts north and the summer anti-cyclone sets in. While this seasonal shift is taking place the patterns are still cycling and WI will continue to feel the effects - on a seasonally affected scale.

Signals are pointing towards temperatures ending below average in July with a rebound to begin August. The end of August looks warm as well. The numbers continue to signal an abundance of precipitation state wide through August. This is true along the borders as well with the only exception being Escanaba, MI. Notable weather events are labeled on the temperature graph in the image by "wisconsinwx" icons along the X axis. I discussed a potential dry spell back in April to take place mid July (http://tiny.cc/wiwx-001), we'll see if that transpires.

Stick with Wisconsin Weather forecasters Justin Poublon and Hunter Anderson for daily forecasts.

Long range forecasts began in April. Past forecasts are below.
June - http://tiny.cc/wiwxjun
May - http://tiny.cc/wiwxmay
April - http://tiny.cc/wiwxapr

More information on LRC and ISO.
LRC - http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/
ISO - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/

If there are any questions or thoughts on the forecast or the presented material, please leave a comment. Thanks for reading!

Jul 4, 2013

Summer Pattern Trend

Medium range GFS may have the right idea. Pattern trend looks good as of now. Below image is GFS 500 forecast for July 11 accompanied with the OSNW3 Madison MaxT and Pcpn trend.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the pattern or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!