Aug 13, 2012

The 2011-12 Lezak's Recurring Cycle

Last month I tweeted that I was not sure this pattern would repeat again this year. The GFS is telling me I was right, I wasn't sure.  It's in the medium range forecast plot once again.  The overall cycle is still in charge but there are signs it is evolving!

(Aug-18, 2012 - GFS 126HR 8/13)

If this pattern repeat happens on Aug-18, I think we have started the morph where we'll begin to actually notice the stark differences. According to my calendar, this will be happening way too early.  I suppose I should be patient. This same thing happened back in May when the maps coincided early and the cycle held together. The GFS actually hints at that same thing happening as it did in May. A simple case of jumping the gun as I may be a little excited for a new pattern to evolve.

(first posted on Jul-16, 2012)

The summertime jet is full effect. This means the 2011-12 cycle will soon begin to morph into the 2012-13 cycle. I will admit I am very anxious for this transition to begin. But, before I become truly entrenched into the hunt I want to recall how I got into this mess to begin with. In honor of the 2011-12 cycle I will follow the 500mb plots through my calendar. Nov-17 was the first I saw the cycle go full circle.

(Sep-30, 2011)

(Nov-17, 2011) - 48 Days

(Jan-2, 2012) - 46 Days

(Feb-17, 2012) - 46 Days

(Apr-3, 2012) - 46 Days

(May-21, 2012) - 48 Days

(Jul-8, 2012) - 48 Days

(first posted on Nov-18, 2011)

I was waiting to update the blog until there was an archived 500mb plot to compare cycles. That opportunity came Nov-18. A comparison for the days of Sep-30 and Nov-17 provides a result of a 48 day cycle duration as of this writing. Moving each of the days back one day in time also yields similar setups. Moving forward, the patterns are cycling. It is noticeable with this initial comparison how the strengthening and south ward march of the jet stream affects the cycle. It's time to get down and dirty with this years cycle and analyze the ever changing seasons as they bring with them their own unique twist. On a side note, as the season moves into winter the cycle duration will likely extend a few days and even more importantly, there is no more need for living in fantasy land to find the cycle! (fantasy land = long range computer models)

(first posted on Dec-30, 2011)

Much of my research has led me to the conclusion that the patterns within a particular cycle take on a more similar look and feel to the, 'every other' or non consecutive cycle rather than the one preceding or following that particular cycle. For example, cycle 1 & 3 & 5 are more similar to each other while cycle 2 & 4 & 6 are more similar to each other. The 'birthday' of the 2011-12 LRC is a great example and should be considered a signature feature. This time around the surface features and 500mb flow are shaping up very similar to Sep-30.

(first posted on Feb-21, 2011)

I was very much looking forward to this 'birthday' of sorts for this years LRC. It was scheduled to take place while we were to spend time in Marquette, MI. Realizing what the potential was excited us as we were in store for snow and waves if it were to act like the Sep or Jan version. However, what happened was more like the Nov version. We were still greeted with a little bit of snow and waves, but without the intensity we wished for. The conclusion I stated below has proven itself this time around, will it next time? Could another trip to Door County, WI for some big wave action be in store? Only time will tell. Happy birthday LRC. The 500mb map has been added below for comparison.


If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Aug 4, 2012

The Current Pattern's Life Throughout The 2011-12 Cycle

I dedicated a small chunk of time tracking our current pattern back through the seasons. It was an interesting ride. The most obvious conclusion, leading up to this comparison, is we are still holding onto the overall 2011-12 cycle, but significant, while yet very small, changes are taking place. However, the recent and current instability has occurred before. This is the same pattern that brought the thunderous weather the first week of May when Oshkosh recorded 4+ inches of rainfall on May 2. Also the same pattern that riddled the area with thunderstorms the third week of June.

Anyway. Not for the lighthearted, but consider the Aug 3 500mb map.

(Aug 3, 2012)

Take this pattern back through each cycle to Oct 26, 2011.

2011-12 OSNW3 LRC Calendar
8/4, 6/19, 5/4, 3/18, 1/31, 12/14, 10/26 - give or take a day.

(Jun 19, 2012) - 46

(May 4, 2012) - 46

(Mar 18, 2012) - 47

(Jan 31, 2012) - 47

(Dec 14, 2011) - 48

(Oct 26, 2011) - 49

I searched for a September 2011 match beginning at 47 days from Oct 26. What I expected is to find a map not matching and that is exactly what I found. Going back and forth in time from that date I was able to see sporadic similarities to the 2011-12 cycle. See the morphing taking place? I was somewhat blown away. This theory never ceases to amaze me. Looking forward to the next two months!

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog.