Jun 12, 2012

Another AccuWx 25 Day Forecast Comparison

This is my third installment of following the AccuWeather 25 day temperature forecast and comparing the output to my cycle temperature trend output. One and Two can be found by clicking on the links. In the second comparison last month I eliminated a portion of the cycle in hopes of quantifying the dynamics of the trend. Turns out one "anomaly" did the trick and the LRC came out on top with less error.

I create the comparisons by saving a snapshot of the AccuWx forecast and uploading a 'cached' version of the webpage onto my server where it sits unmolested. (I took the June snapshot on June 4th) I then extract the AccuWx data into the graph shown below. As the month progresses the graph will dynamically update after I enter in the observed daily temperatures. Check back every now and then to see the ongoing results.

(Click on the graph for the full set of data.)

If there is anything substantial to the 'every other cycle' thought process the second half of June should be a scorcher here in Oshkosh. The cycle comparisons used to generate the model trend output are my interpretations of the cycle. My interpretations of the cycle are lined out in my cycle calendar. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!