May 5, 2012

The March Anomaly & LRC Center

March was a cycle data buster. Or was it? Below are two LRC forecast trends. One with the March data used in it and another without the March data used in it. In particular, the dates I wanted to throw out were Mar 3-26, but to make it quick I just threw out all March data. The trending data for this part of the cycle, highlighted in the images below, show rising temperatures, but as we know the cycling weather patterns go through seasonal twists due to jet position. Is it prudent to disregard cycle data to provide a better understanding of the LRC? How about when providing a long range forecast?

(Oshkosh Forecast Trend With March)

(Oshkosh Forecast Trend Without March)

We are currently a handful of cycles along in this years LRC and in any given cycle year being this far along choosing which cycle resembles one another certainly provides engaging results. For instance, the trend below shows what I labeled 'Cycle 1' and 'Cycle 4' in the forecast trends. The dates of these particular cycles are Nov7-Dec23 and Mar27-May12. (I understand that my 'forecast cycle 1' could very easily be cycle 2 or 3 depending how one chooses to the follow the cycling patterns). The two sets of data match up very well with the peeks and valleys flowing in parallel.

(Oshkosh MaxT - Nov7-Dec23 and Mar27-May12)

A .. SOND .. JF .. MAMJ .. J
(each letter is a month, starting with August left to right)

It certainly seems if we use a center point of where jet position is similar (JF) and move out in both directions from that point, that the particular cycles happening in the particular months should be more alike than any of the other cycles. Something to keep in my when perusing the forecast trends I provide. This potential phenomena in the LRC is evident in the trend above as each cycle moves farther from "center" JF.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!