May 2, 2012

AccuWx 25 vs LRC 25

--- Original Entry Below (4/4/12)
I promote looking into a crystal ball. Especially if one has the means and tener cojones. I agree with what the AccuWx how to article states... "following trends in the weather is key".

(AccuWeather's 25 Day Forecast Trend for Oshkosh, WI)

(OSNW3's April Forecast Trend based on the LRC for Oshkosh, WI)

Analyzing the two trends above it is apparent they differ in the long range. I've cached the webpage that generated the AccuWx trend on April 4. It can be found here. As the month moves forward I will be comparing the trends and grading the verification. Fun, fun, fun. (the LRC based trends will update automatically as the actual temperatures are updated every couple days)


If someone unfamiliar with the LRC looks at my trends they'll most likely blow them off as some hodge podge BS, as many did toward the AccuWx 25 in the comments of the article linked above. But, on the other hand, if one is a little familiar with the LRC and follows along once and a while, then it is possible they will understand just what the trends provide. By analyzing the 500mb maps and data one can find the cycle within each year. It's a task not for the lighthearted. One thing to remember about the LRC is that it is not one storm that cycles, it is the longwave troughs and ridges that cycle. Seasonal positioning of the jet brings twists to each cycling pattern. It is important to 'live' the cycle. Taking a couple weeks off makes it very difficult to pick back up. I keep a 'LRC calendar' to aid in following along each year. Consider it my crutch. Total satisfaction can really only be achieved by following along.

I am bias to my region when following the LRC. However, this year I branched out and created more trends for other cities. The branching out proves to me that it would take quadruple the time and effort to follow along in all corners of the CONUS. I commend all who do. Currently I trend min/max temps and precip days. Each trend is laid out as if it were one cycle. Vertically scrolling up and down will lead the trends in and out of different cycles. The x's are the daily min/max deviation from the long term temperature average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The green line is the median deviation from average for the corresponding days in each cycle. The black line is the long term average. Precip occurring during a cycle is given a value of five on the scale. If precip occurs again in another cycle on the corresponding day, five is added to the number for the next cycle trend. Some days have better odds of precipitation because precipitation was recorded on the corresponding days in the cycle. They are displayed as a higher vertical line. For the days that have been archived, a "green cap" on the vertical line means precipitation was recorded on that day. Basically a tiered bias growing in potential each recurrence of recorded precip on corresponding days in the cycle.

All of the min/max temp and precip trends based on the LRC can be found here.

I truly believe anyone can make weather projections long term using the LRC. I've spent an great deal of effort coding this particular 'LRC model' and I am always trying to improve it. If you have any suggestions please let me know. It's all very obvious how a long range forecast can aid the average person, like myself. I use the LRC trend everyday.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!