Apr 15, 2011

Following the Upcoming Storm, a Guest Forecast, and Tee Times


Following the Upcoming Storm

OSNW3 is now entrenched into a very active part of the LRC. Multiple disturbances tracking our direction will only allow a few sunshine days to sneak in here or there until the end of the month. The storm approaching for Tue-Wed this week, Apr 19-20, fits into the LRC with the dates Feb 28, Jan 10, and Nov 22. That is the way I see it at least. Right on schedule. Click on the linked dates for daily surface observations.

(Nov 22, 2010 - RADAR LOOP)


(Jan 10, 2011 - RADAR LOOP)


(Feb 28, 2011 - RADAR LOOP)


(Apr 20, 2011 - FORECAST)


*** The storm was a fun one this time through the cycle dumping 6.4 inches of snow in my backyard. For a storm report click here.

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OSNW3 Guest Forecast
We have guests staying with us next week and of course I wanted to tell them what weather conditions they could/should expect while visiting. Using the LRC model I am able to give them a good idea. It will help in determining what they should pack; winter jackets, spring jackets, snow boots, flip-flops? Yes, granted, they should pack for all seasons when visiting WI in late April, but why pack all of it if it is not necessary.

To start I had to determine each cycle length to the dates in question, Apr 22-27. After plotting the 500mb heights and analyzing the 500mb maps I found that the maps of this time period in previous cycles line up with Apr 25 and as of this writing, the forecast model is somewhat similar. I have a hunch the forecast model will change in time to have more of a similarity with previous occurrences within the LRC. This scenario, analyzed below, should bring precipitation with slightly above average temperatures for the first half of their visit. The second half of their visit things should cool off while keeping precipitation chances likely. We'll see what happens. I told them it's gonna be cold and dreary. Below are 500mb maps showing the time periods of this years LRC that line up with the half way point of their stay. Apr 25.

(Nov 26, 2010 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Jan 16, 2011 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Mar 5, 2011 - 500MB TIME LAPSE)


(Apr 25, 2011 - FORECAST)


Linked with each 500mb map heading (the text in parentheses above each image) is a 500mb map time lapse of a fourteen day period with the day of the map being the tenth day in the period. The red column in the 500mb height graph below is where each day mentioned above is located in the fourteen day analysis period. I would suggest opening each of the time lapse maps individually in QuickTime and manually moving them forward in time comparing the atmospheric flow of each. It provided another great lesson for me in how the cycle breathes and how seasonal affects on the jet manipulate the flow.

(500mb Height Plot)


Below are links to the Aug and Oct version of the period. It is a bit more difficult to see in the maps, but if I am seeing what I am seeing I believe these portions of cycle match up.

Aug 24, 2010
Oct 13, 2010

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Can I Get A Tee Time?
The recent pattern has not been conducive for golfing. It's getting late to still have the clubs in the basement. I am looking even further and perhaps forward to some golf the last weekend of April, will it be conducive? Analyzing the 500mb plots and surface data discussed above it would seem some rain will be threatening a 'weather free' round. Perhaps it'll be warm and in that case a few rain drops are tolerable. It will be do or die no matter what by that point, league starts the following week.

(Nov 30, 2010)


(Jan 20, 2011)


(Mar 8, 2011)


(Apr 29, 2011 - FORECAST)


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To help keep dates and surface data in order I created a LRC calendar. To keep time I highlighted this years signature storm and referenced the above comparisons in similar fashion. The LRC calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog.

Thanks for reading!

Apr 7, 2011

Signature Patterns & Backyard Temperature Forecast


I have been hedging my bets for this weekends warm-up to take place for many weeks now. I am able to because of my confidence in Lezak's Recurring Cycle. Each time through the cycle at OSNW3 this pattern has produced multiple days that were 10+ degrees above the Oshkosh average maximum temperature.

Nov 8-12 (+15°)
Dec 30-31, Jan 1 (+17°)
Feb 14-18 (+12°)

10+ degrees above average on any day between Apr 7-11 would put OSNW3 into the 60's. These types of temperatures will feel mighty nice after enduring the last gasp of winter the past two weeks. For an interactive look at this particular pattern I would suggest opening each of the 500mb maps, linked below, in their own browser tab. Then move the maps forward in time from each instance to the dates mentioned above paying particular attention to the movement of the atmosphere. It is evident a warm up was coming months ago due to the cycling pattern.

- Nov 5, 2010
- Dec 26, 2010
- Feb 14, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above and Apr 5, 2011)


One can do the same thing for the cold snap that followed the Great Lakes Cyclone, more popularly known as this years LRC 'signature' storm, by opening the links below and working through them as explained above. A persistent northwest flow set up ushering in cooler than average air.

- Oct 26, 2010
- Dec 11, 2010
- Feb 1, 2011
- Mar 23, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above)


More in depth information about these particular patterns within this years LRC can be found in the WeatherWatch12 and LRCweather blogs. Following these and other cycle analysis blogs acts as a catalyst for taking the bull by the horns. Recently I have been working with OSNW3 surface data attempting to forecast temperatures using the LRC. I came up with a very crude and simplistic formula that proved to have a 50% verification within a 10-15 degree range during the previous cycles 3 and 4. A good success rate for predicting temperatures a month or more in advance in my opinion. See graphs below for an analysis of previous cycles and a backyard temperature forecast through mid May using the formula. A larger view of each graph can be found by clicking on the image. The forecast graph for cycle 5 says it should certainly be near or above 60 here at OSNW3 this weekend!







The formula I created finds the mean deviation from the 30 year average for the particular day using the temp from that day, the day before and the day after within each cycle. The graph legend consists of the following acronyms. Cycle Max (CycMax), Cycle Min (CycMin), Forecast Max Temp (ForMaxT), Forecast Max Temp Range Hi (ForMaxTRH, Forecast Max Temp Range Lo (ForMaxTRL), Actual Max Temp at OSNW3 (ActualMaxT), and the Oshkosh Average Max Temp (OshAvgMaxT).

If there are any questions about my research or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks!