May 6, 2012

Weather Event Forecasting - Second Week Of May

I've updated the 500mb maps below with GFS 500mb forecast maps for the upcoming second week of May. They are the first map of each comparison and look different (there is yellow in them) than the archived maps. Again, the LRC provides a significant confidence factor in the long range models forecast. How will the surface weather affect us this Spring versus last Fall? Whatever it is, this version will provide a significant learning opportunity for all who follow the cycling weather patterns.

As for using the LRC trends to provide a weather forecast for Oshkosh, they point to a 2 in 5 chance of preicp for the 8th, but we are in the odd cycle of the 'every other' add-on theory. If it works out, it probably won't rain at OSNW3. High temps should range in the 60s. As for the 14th, the 2 in 5 chance of precip presents itself again but this recurrence is in the even cycle of the 'every other' add-on theory. This leads me to believe it will precipitate at OSNW3. Highs should be in the 60s. We'll see what happens.

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originally posted on Apr 1, 2012
Potential #1 & #2 recurred on schedule. With these recurrences the precipitation made it back into NE WI. Potential #1 dropped over an inch. The cold air made it into the area as suspected as well. Places in northern WI had freezing overnight lows. These recurring features should repeat between May 8 and May 14. Maps and radar are updated. Perhaps some thunderstorms in Potential #1 and a cool and damp spell in Potential #2 ??? We shall see.

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originally posted on Mar 19, 2012
These systems are on track and on schedule for the Midwest. This is another example of how the LRC provides a greater confidence factor in the long range models forecast.  In particular the GFS.  I have included the forecast 500mb maps for each potential. They are the first map in each sequence and are labeled as such.  As the time creeps closer I will be updating the forecast maps...

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originally posted on Feb 14, 2012
The two events below will return during the last ten days of March. With the jet beginning the annual northward retreat around this time it will be interesting to see how much cold air comes down from Canada after Potential #2 moves out. This cold air could leave us with daily maximum temperatures in the 30's if it transpires. I would assume many spring activities will already be in full swing by this time and it will be a kind reminder that the winter of 2011-12 never really happened.

Potential #1 - May 8-9, 2012
Here at OSNW3 we recorded an inch of rain with this system back in early November, since that occurrence though, each counterpart has lacked the precipitation element as the system keeps ejecting east rather than northeast leaving Northeast WI out of the action. Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri on the other hand, have seen great energy released with this recurring storm system.

(Nov 3, 2011 - 500mb)
(Dec 21, 2011 - 500mb)
(Feb 5, 2012 - 500mb)
(Mar 23, 2012 - 500mb) 
(May 9, 2012 - 500mb)

Nov 2-11, 2011 - Radar
Dec 19-27, 2011 - Radar
Feb 3-11, 2012 - Radar
Mar 21-30, 2012 - Radar

Potential #2 - May 13-14, 2012
This storm initially created the case to be labeled the 'signature' storm for this years LRC in our area. It was our first good snowfall of the year. It is the 'notable event' in the OSNW3-Oshkosh Winter Forecast labeled 'Snowstorm/Cold' in each cycle. Here at OSNW3 we recorded over 3 inches of precip and over 2 inches of snow in a 3 day period in the first cycle. Without phasing of the jet stream the split flow has kept this system screaming further south and east each time through the cycle. While it gives the area a chance at precip and a sudden drop in temperature it certainly lacks 'signature storm' criteria.

(Nov 9, 2011 - 500mb)
(Dec 27, 2011 - 500mb)
(Feb 11, 2012 - 500mb)
(Mar 28, 2012 - 500mb)
(May 13, 2012 - 500mb)

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. To follow the cycling patterns please click on the 500mb maps and navigate back and forth from each of dates paying close attention to the overall flow.