I decided to venture backward in time to August to see if I could spot the cycles morphing into this years cycle. After I was able to I then decided to create another version of the 2011-12 LRC blend 500mb Forecast Trend and the Oshkosh Max Temp Forecast Trend. This separate version incorporates this years genesis cycle, same as this product did last year (500/Temp). The genesis cycle is something I've mentioned before. When labeling the cycles everyone has their own perspective. I believe it is the time of year when the previous and new cycles are morphing, late summer early autumn. I began this year w/o this cycle being used in the forecast but now I feel like playing around with it again. The more data to compare the better... maybe?
20110929 (48 days)
20111116 (49 days)
500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay - V2
This version of the 500mb forecast trend begins comparing data from Aug-13 unlike the original trend which begins from Sep-29. The graph below is a forecast trend for 500mb heights in Green Bay, WI incorporating the genesis cycle of this years LRC. The trend is an average of 500mb actuals based on the cycle duration of the LRC. This graph also compares the LRC blend to forecast 500mb heights of the GFS 7-14 day computer model.
Max Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh - V2
This version of the maximum temperature forecast trend begins comparing data from Aug-13 unlike the original trend which begins from Sep-29. The graph below is a forecast trend for maximum temperature in Oshkosh, WI incorporating the genesis cycle of this years LRC. The trend is an average of maximum temperature actuals based on the cycle duration of the LRC.
From the looks of the the graphs above, they may provide less of an error from actual with the added cycle to the LRC blend. ??? More analysis is needed. Until then the original trends starting on Sep-29 will continue to be the featured forecast trends on the bottom right hand side of the blog. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!