Nov 11, 2011

Some Thoughts On The New, Still Evolving, 2011-12 LRC

*Update Nov-11, 2011

It's getting down to crunch time! The professionals that base their winter forecasts on the LRC are building the hype for their respective release within the next week! Exciting times. As for what I am seeing, well, it is a 45 ish cycle duration currently. The other morning I found a comparison that was 46. I am leaning toward a mid to high forty right now rather than a 50+ I saw a week ago. This really is a fun part of the LRC, I will admit. Similar to a treasure hunt!

(Oct-8, 2011)

(Nov-22, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-7, 2011

And it keeps evolving. Today I like Sep-30 and Nov-20. 52 days. Notice the GFS Nov-20 forecast map is different from yesterday? I know Tim enjoys this fantasy land stuff! ;)

(Sep-30, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Nov-6, 2011

Hints of the cycle length are coming in. The 500mb map comparison below is evidence. Potentially 48-ish days. Admittedly this comparison puts a lot faith into the GFS long range. Clicking on the maps will bring you to their respective websites.

(Oct-4, 2011)

(Nov-20, 2011 Forecast)

---- Original Post Oct-30, 2011

I am getting excited, like a kid in a candy store, about the first few weeks of November as they will complete our analysis for the first cycle of the 2011-12 LRC.

As far as Oshkosh is concerned, today's (Oct-30) precipitation could certainly be a nice snowfall in December. However, up until now we haven't had any 'storms' to reference that would provide anything over 4 inches of snowfall in a 24 hour period. The way I see it breaking down for Oshkosh thus far in the cycle is, the second half of the first half of the cycle could be riddled with clippers which will hopefully keep the relatively warm "snow melting air" out of the area. If we get clipper after clipper it could carve out a great time period of LES in the Lake Superior snow belts. Also, there were two potent systems that traveled to our north in late September and middle October, perhaps they could be snow makers as the jet dips south come late November through January as well. Unfortunately the ridge that built up during the time between the two storms could bring some warm air rushing into the area which could spell doom for snow lovers... we'll see! These are my preliminary thoughts on the currently evolving 2011-12 LRC. I plan to attempt a winter forecast for Oshkosh during the Thanksgiving time frame.

The recent snow out East was certainly epic and I have confidence that it will recur multiple times until next summer. Signs point to an extremely active year in the NE. I would expect this storm to move slightly south and east each time it recurs. We'll see. To view a US radar loop of the recent Nor'Easter click the link below.

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. The 2011-12 LRC calendar can be found here and is also accessible from the LRC Analysis Tools section in the upper right portion of the blog. Thanks for reading!