Sep 27, 2011

Consecutive LRC Cycle Years & Repeat 'Signature' Features Within Them

In the debate of previous cycle year patterns repeating in the new cycle year, I took the time to analyze two specific back to back cycle years. 1977-78/78-79 and 2009-10/10-11. While certain 'signature' features seem to repeat, the overall patterns are quite different. For the storm that was labeled the 'signature' storm in 2010-11 it doesn't surprise me that a conclusion could be made from a GFS forecast model that it may repeat in the 2011-12 cycle year. However, I am confident that the patterns leading up to it and following it are/will be different. I will provide links to my analysis below.

LRC 1977 thru 1979
For the 1977-79 time frame I choose one 'signature' feature to follow. To get a better glimpse of what the LRC calendar looked like for that time period please follow the Calendar7779 link. Click on the links below to bring up the maps for those days and follow the cycle through starting with Jan-9, 1978 and Jan-4, 1979. The signature feature in the middle atmosphere is noticeable, but as the days stray from the feature the pattern takes on a different look and feel from one another. See the Calendar7779 for daily surface observations as well. You will need the DjVu viewer (link to download below) to open the maps. I recommend it as I believe this is a good example of yearly differences.

1977-78 cycle averaged 59 ish days. (Start with 1/9/78)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780109-19780115.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780116-19780122.djvu

1978-79 cycle averaged 57 ish days. (Start with 1/4/79)
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790101-19790107.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1979/19790108-19790114.djvu

Calendar7779
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar7779.html

Original Blog Entry & Data
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshkosh-winters-of-1977-78-1978-79.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/lrc_7779.xlsx

DjVu Viewer Download
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

LRC 2009 thru 2011
Bringing myself closer to the present and watching events I can actually remember I analyzed the past two years. I defined my time keeper as the signature storm from 2010-11 and followed it back through 2009. It is certainly a feature that could be considered a repeat feature but in reality it is all actually quite different.

Calendar091011
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar091011.html

Map links for easy access
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20090925.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091116.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20091231.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100223.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100416.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100603.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100724.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20100911.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101026.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20101211.html

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!