Jun 9, 2011

Early June Analysis: A Heat Wave?

Much of our region just endured the first significant heat wave of the season. This heat wave came relatively 'out of no where' according to the 2010-11 LRC trends, or at least how I interpret the trends. On average, the 7-10 day period after the "big warm-up" was followed by average to below average temperatures each time through the cycle. Looking at the maps below it is obvious the Nov, Jan, Feb, and Apr maps look similar while the Oct, and Jun maps look similar.

(Oct 5, 2010

(Nov 19, 2010) 46 days from Oct 5

(Jan 7, 2011) 51 days from Nov 19

(Feb 25, 2011) 49 days from Jan 7

(Apr 18, 2011) 53 days from Feb 25

(Jun 5, 2011) 49 days from Apr 18

Learning that the pattern takes on seasonal twists and then tracking this part of the pattern back to Oct a thought of "heat wave" could have been speak for this time around. With the jet being weaker and further north it is not out of the question that a large high pressure could take over, like it did somewhat in Oct and certainly did this early Jun. So with that thought I could easily be talked into the idea of when this part of the pattern rolls around the last week of July it could be extremely hot again. Will the patterns keep cycling or will they be fading as summer rolls on? We'll see. I'll be watching and reading what the experts say (linked blogs on right side).

The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.

** The dates above the 500mb maps are linked to Tim's Weather blog for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin daily weather reports.  In these reports Tim breaks down the upper air and provides a great discussion for the flow aloft that day.