As the ‘signature storm’ approaches, I think it provides a good lesson on how the cycling patterns change through the seasons. It is evident that the feature, the 'signature storm', exists and that a ridge is setting up in relatively the same spot in similar type seasons like May and Sep if you believe we can go that far back. I like Sep 10 and Jun 30 forecast 500mb maps, 294 days apart, which averages 49 days. The 2010-2011 LRC is cycling between 45 and 54 days.
(Sep 10, 2010 - Cycle A)
(Jun 30, 2011 - Cycle 6 - Forecast)
Exciting to see the seasonal twists as the jet becomes more powerful peaking in Feb and then weakening as we roll through into Jul and Aug. The 500mb plots of the 'signature storm' cycle 1 through 5 are linked below.
Oct 26, 2010
Dec 11, 2010
Feb 1, 2011
Mar 22, 2011
May 11, 2011
For the sake of labeling and keeping a tracking system closely related to the professionals, I labeled Aug 1 through the first 50 days this season "Cycle A" and then each cycle after that numerically 1-6.
The dates I chose to analyze were derived from the LRC calendar I try to keep up to date as best I can. The calendar can be found here. If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading.