Jan 2, 2011

LRC Learning Process

The storms that rolled through Dec 29-31 brought warm air and rain with them. Something that I did not think would happen back on Dec 17 when I created my backyard snowfall forecast using the LRC. I will admit I was skeptical of this particular system due to the direct southerly flow in the first cycle, but with it being the end of December I thought that it would at the least snow a little bit. Not the case. This got me thinking about a way to accommodate for different types of precipitation when committing to a long range snowfall forecast. Perhaps I could use the temperature deviation from the long term average or the deviation from cycle median occurring in the previous cycle for a clue? After comparing the most recent activity in this cycle and it's partner in the previous cycle I concluded that the cycle median deviation from average was ambiguous, but the deviation from the long term average was not as anomalous. The results may have persuaded me to predict less snow had I thought of this potential component. We'll see if this turns out to be matter for more thought. Click the link above for my latest analysis, fun.