Jan 14, 2011

LRC Chit-Chat

As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.