Jul 4, 2016

Wisconsin Nearly a Bullseye the Third Week of July with +2mT Anomaly

Wisconsin nearly a bullseye the third week of July with +2mT anomaly.

Analog composite per Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT).

(source)

H5 Low/High placement of analog dates from composite.

(source)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

May 21, 2016

The Recurring Rossby Wave Train Average Oscillation Period

Long story short. A while back I automated a technique to find recurring patterns in the atmosphere. From these data assimilations I produce medium and long range forecast composites. (A painfully long story is told within all posts of this Blog)

I know there are folks that prefer the Gary Lezak Recurring Cycle and the Doug Heady Pattern. Through my data driven approach I have automated user friendly forecast guidance based on the rudimentary one pattern one cycle technique, the LRC and Heady Pattern. I provide these deterministic and probabilistic forecast guides, for free, for anyone to use and assist in making medium and long range forecasts.

Analyze the instructional navigation images linked at the bottom of this entry, then head on over to the link below this paragraph to view the data. I understand that the current locales included with the RRWT average oscillation period are regionally derived for my personal agenda (WI and surrounding states). If there is a place in Canada, Mexico, or the CONUS you'd like to see please inquire via comment or email. I would be happy to oblige the request.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/index.html

*There is only a specific portion of the site that is derived from the RRWT average oscillation period (navigated to via instructional navigation images below)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.

Link to instructioinal navigation images:
Navigate RRWT Average OP Content

Jan 30, 2016

Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule

We generated a small time sample of potential Spring severe weather pattern based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule, also know as the Organic Forecasting technique called the "trifecta". To simplify the write-up the RRWT hindsight dates are linked to their corresponding H5 map. For the daily SPC storm reports go here and change the date in the url. The projection dates are listed below the chart and are bolded.

The chart below shows the regional RRWT oscillation period average. The oscillation period average is used to project the initial future date that is expected to hold similar weather pattern ingredients as previous oscillation period weather patterns, +/- 3 days. The projections will be maintained once the projection date is ~30 days from realization. Methods used to confirm original projection will consist of modeled BSR(~30 days), current RRWT oscillation period(~30 days), observed BSR(~20 days), modeled TR(~16 days), observed TR(~8 days), and GFS/GEM/EURO model guidance(~3 days).



Hindsight dates
09/08-11/05-12/23
09/18-11/11-12/30
09/27-11/16-01/09

Foresight dates using OP of 52 days
12/23-02/13-04/05-05/27 (Ref)
12/30-02/20-04/12-06/03 (Ref)
01/09-03/01-04/22-06/13 (Ref)

If there are any questions, comments, or suggestions on the material presented please let me know.